With respect to the notion that bellwethers are demographically representative, this appears not to true. He said he finds it hard to believe Bidens claim that he never talked to his son Hunter Biden about his deals in Ukraine and China. A small-business owner, who didnt want to be identified, said hes voting for Biden. Eleven of the nineteen were located in just six Midwestern states, and Wisconsin alone is home to four, they said. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the nineteen counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. Vigo County's most recent winning streak ended this year, as it did for nearly all the country's reliable bellwethers, most of them blue-collar, overwhelmingly white communities in the Rust Belt. In 2016, Pennsylvania itself was wrenched out of its 24-year run as a Democratic sure bet when Donald Trump cleared just over 44,000 more votes than Hillary Clinton and took the states prized 20 electoral votes. For much of the last decade, historically Republican suburban areas in Franklin, Ohio,. Theyre scared. The majority of rural America are our hard-working, blue-collar workers. Once the two 2016 presidential candidates were locked in, she knew she couldnt vote for Clinton, while Trumps promise to drain the swamp piqued her interest. Only one, Clallam County in Washington, went for former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a 3 point margin. He received his bachelors degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Toledo and a Masters degree in electrical engineering from Northwestern in Illinois. By registering for the newsletter, you agree to the, New Crew From US, Russia, and UAE Arrives at Space Station, LIVE NOW: Biden Awards Medal of Honor to Retired Army Col. Paris Davis, We Have to Pay Our Sins: Lawmakers Must Negotiate Way Out of US Debt Crisis: Sen. Manchin, Suspect Charged After Chicago Officer Dies After Shootout, Nevada Approves $330 Million in Tesla Tax Abatements Over Gigafactory Expansion. It doesnt matter whether you are a Republican or a Democrat, youre going to get a crook. He won nineteen-to-twenty bellwether counties. It swung from Barack Obama in 2012 to Donald Trump in 2016, and political science professor Matthew Bergbower says its something akin to a purple county.. They also found that high-scoring counties exhibit a geographic trend. . The United States needs to get back to where were responsible, energy independent, and get away from the thought process of these liberal socialists in office., Government is out of control, he added. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. In 2020, amid widespread accusations of Democrat cheating, these bellwethers were not even close checking in at a mind-blowing 6%! He didnt vote in 2016 either. I think we needed somebody like him.. It was easy. Im looking at both sides of it. Today, there are also 14,183 independents registered to vote and five libertarians, according to the Ottawa Countys Board of Elections website. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. Most of the jobs up here are part-time or seasonal. He soon lost his car, because he fell behind on license plate fees. If that date were to change, the Ohio legislature is the only one who can request to postpone or change the date of an election through legislative action.. Shepherds family, on the other hand, wasnt much interested in politics. But, he said, most mainstream politicians dont represent rural America, and issues such as boys that identify as girls and then compete in girls high school sports just smack of stupid., The economy and taxes are important issues to him, but the question he asks of the candidate is, Does this person care about my family?. He likes how the Democratic Party helps lower-income people. Titchner, a Vietnam veteran, has been painting houses for 45 years and said he votes based on the candidate, rather than the party. Being poor, I do believe that we need a stable safety net for people. But the thing that stuck out in my head, every time I read or listened to anything about [Obamas] policies, I saw such a deep revival of division, causing division between the blacks and the whites again, Jacobs said on Sept. 17. Also, spare a thought for Webster County in Georgia. While Zulch said he voted for Trump in both presidential elections, he says hell have to wait and see who runs before saying who he would vote for in 2024. She can be reached at cara.ding@epochtimes.com, Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Suburban Wisconsin Voters Divided on Presidential Race. Farming also is a big part of Wood County's make up in northwest Ohio. She thinks economic distress from COVID-19 will fuel more unrest. The shift is evident when comparing current registrations with the 2016 numbers. Haotian Chen is a Ph.D. student in political science at the University of California, Irvine. In both of the missteps, the residents wrongly picked the losing Democrat: Williams Jennings Bryan over President William Taft in 1908 and Adlai Stevenson over President Dwight Eisenhower in 1952. I just dont think hes capable of doing the job that its going to require of him.. Fitch, who grew up in foster homes and went on to put himself through college, has owned and run the Summit Fireside Lodge and Grill for 32 years. "The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. Those counties were: Warren County, Ill. Vigo County, Ind. Greg Abbott of Texas as a possible presidential candidate. I have not seen any division like this [before]., I believe that is because of our current president, so my main issue is that he does not stay president.. I vote for whoever I think is going to do the best job, Sam added. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. Sam said he has noticed that the farmers arent happy, and their kids have to take a side job in the factory because of the economic situation. I would never vote any other way. Getting fertilizer can be a challenge.. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020. Like all-or nothing bellwethers, counties that closely tracked the election for 12 consecutive elections failed to continue that form for a 13th time. Seasonal businesses such as ferries, dairy docks, ice cream stands, Cheesehaven, and fudge factories, are closed. This year, the local courthouse in Ridgway has been bustling with new voter registrations and party affiliation changes. I dont think he has done that bad of a job. SACRAMENTO . Since Trump got voted in, it was when I started getting into politics, Tisdell told The Epoch Times while sitting in his garage. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? Just off Interstate 75 at the Pemberville/Bowling Green exit, is Frickers, a popular eatery and gathering place for people of all ages, whereChris Chamberlin ofBowling Green works as the restaurants manager. Teresa Shepherd, a middle-aged woman living in Riley, just southeast of Terre Haute, has never cared much about voting. Bernard Grofman University of California, Irvine Its going to affect trucking, farming, everything. However, in the 2020 primary election, more Democrats had turned out to vote3,413 to 2,598 Republicans, usually an indicator of how the presidential election is going to go, party officials believe. We need jobs up here, good-paying full-time jobs, she added. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. A number of fertilizer plants closed across the country last year due to natural gas shortages. Thats a highly Democratic area, but people see whats going on and theyre not happy, Sam said. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. The morale of the people up there is bad. We need to be safe, and I dont think we are right now.. And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. To accept cookies, click continue. 2020: Trump - 54.12%, Biden - 45.20%. This is a high farming community.. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Longtime Rep. Marcy Kaptur, a Democrat who has been in Congress since 1983, is running for reelection; Teresa Gavarone and J.R. Majewski are competing in the GOP primary. I think Trump was the better president, said Beggs, who worked for the city for 45 years. All the negativity, and just pure anger for this one person in office I have never seen it before. We need to address the economy and safety and security, Hawker said. Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state.. Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of USAPP American Politics and Policy, nor the London School of Economics. RIDGWAY, Pa.Tucked into a wooded valley in north-central Pennsylvania is the bellwether borough of Ridgway, the county seat of Elk County. He says Democratic Gov. Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. Fifteen percent is a very large gap to close, he said. TERRE HAUTE, Ind.For well over a century, voters in Vigo County, Indiana, have backed the winner in almost every presidential election. There are three counties that voted with the eventual winner for each of the past 10 elections,. Jim Hoft. Because of supply chain issues, its also difficult to find parts, Miller said. He said Vigo County is fairly evenly divided between those who identify as Republicans and those who identify as Democrats. Because of the current situation, I have to look at our finances and say, Can I get this new truck, can I hire these two to three new employees, can we go into this new line of business? Right after we saw the results of the election and that Trump had lost, we were all like, what the hell?, said Tammy, a bartender at Wee Willys Sports Pub in Marblehead. He also intends to vote in personto ensure his vote is counted that day, although he used a mail-in ballot to vote in the primary. But Myers doesnt think Biden is respectful to Trump either. Farming also is huge here. Thats probably the biggest fear right now when I talk to people. We have to figure out a way to control fuel prices. Bernard Grofman is Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Jack W. Peltason Chair of Democracy Studies at the University of California, Irvine. Elk Countys approximately 15,000 residents that go to the polls have voted for the eventual winner in all but three presidential elections since 1932in 1940, 1968, and 2012. We dont want it, she said. If I look back on my life, there is a swing toward the right, and then it swings back toward the left. With a fragile economy following the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, Ohio is eyeing the May 3 primary election with Wood County at somewhat of a standstill. I dont think my vote counts, he told The Epoch Times. Hamilton had already cast his vote for Biden on the first day of early voting. The way the system works now, if you get in as a young person on something small, its very hard to get out. Here, a farming operation is pictured in Bowling Green, Ohio in Wood County, a bellwether county in America's Heartland experiencing problems such as inflation and high gas prices, affecting every day life. Logistics are a nightmare, Miller said. A 75-year-old retiree who owned a transportation and logistics business didnt want to be named and told The Epoch Times hes been skeptical of government since he was 30. This year, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. bellwether counties epoch timesjury duty summons date vs reporting date Get Business Credit and Financing To Grow Your Business!!! The economy and good-paying jobs always have been an issue up here.. As the 2022 mid-term elections near (May 3 in Ohio), one might think that the Republican and Democratic headquarters might be open and in full swing, but at both party offices the week of Feb. 21, the lights were out and no one was occupying the desks inside or answering the phones. Meanwhile, Miller and Zulch voiced their support for restarting the Keystone XL pipeline to help the United States return to energy independence and provide oil to European countries experiencing gas shortages and high prices. Bellwethers arent a crystal balltheir streak was expected to end sooner or later. What happened to our Democratic Party? Its going to cause stealing, probably more riots, and all that., Weve had flu around forever, different strains of it. Theres significant variability among them though. People need to get a job, get out and work. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 33 percent nationally. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times) By Charlotte. They can try all they can to prevent whatever they want to prevent, but nature is going to run its course, no matter what, Tisdell said. County residents had voted for the presidential candidate who won the White House for nearly 60 years, since Democrat Lyndon Johnson won in 1964, according to the Ottawa County Board of Elections. Our politicians need to look on both sides of the fence and work together. He said hes concerned but hopeful for the future. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). Tammy, who didnt want to provide her last name, told The Epoch Times that during the summer leading up to the 2020 presidential election, the area had a regatta on Lake Erie in Marblehead in support of Donald Trump. Supreme Court nominees also matter a lot to Myers in this election. He was an apprentice and then a journeyman in a local steamfitters union for about 10 years before he was laid off. Those are the biggest issuesthe economy and national security. Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. Ron DeSantis, Miller said he likes Gov. Even Heidi Mackey, the clerk inside the station who said she hasnt voted since 2018, said shell likely vote in the May 3 primary. Ottawa County is also the home to the Marblehead lighthouse (the oldest lighthouse in continuous operation on the Great Lakes), Africa Wildlife Safari, and its county seat of Port Clinton is known as the Walleye Capital of the World. As Figure 1 shows, with roughly 3600 counties, the number of counties which correctly predict the elections outcome can be non-trivial even for relatively long sequence of elections when the probability of a correct prediction is exactly 50 percent, i.e., a coin flip. In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. When Republican Dr. Ted Bowlus defeated Democrat Joel Kuhlman in the 2016 election, it completed a single-party commission. Peoples common sense level is cooked. The last time Ottawa County deviated from its winning choice for president was in 1960 when the county supported Republican Richard Nixon, but Democrat John F. Kennedy won. Perhaps that is why they are a true bellwether county, not fully committing to one political party over the other. In Ridgway, Biden supporters were more difficult to find and more reluctant to talk than Trump supporters, but a few yard signs were dotted around. Thats about 43 percent of the eligible voters in the country, according to a study of nonvoters overseen by professors at Tufts University and Stony Brook University. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and the University of New Hampshire. He cares about the American people.. This includes personalizing content and advertising. If this thing continues, were going to be paying $6 a gallon for gas, he said. The counties are also mostly small and rural. What Should Fiscal and Social Policy in a Sustainable Economy Look Like? Im seeing more hate for this man than he has hated anyone, Tisdell said. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Theres too much corruption. He considers Trump pro-life. Its the rural American, pro-life, pro-Second Amendment county that gave the edge to Barack Obama in 2008. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. This includes personalizing content and advertising. The expansion for First Solar was made possible by changes in the U.S. Corporate Tax Policy during the Trump administration. Data de l'entrada martin county clerk of court jobs; whats wrong secretary kim dramawiki . Washington state's Clallam County was the outlier, backing Joe Biden in a state he won by more than 19 points. Martin plans to turn up at the polling booth on Election Day. . Another Ridgway resident said hes more enthusiastic to vote for Trump this year. Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. Workforce shortages are mostly everywhere, he said. Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic. We have loads that sometimes dont cover the fuel costs., During the COVID pandemic, nobody was on the roads. And it can happen.. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. Were going to shift from a materialistic world to a more conscious and spiritual world, he said. He also drives more than 40 miles from Marblehead to Wellington to pick up his truck. Portman wont be seeking reelection; seven Republicans are competing in the primary election for the partys nomination: Matt Dolan, Mike Gibbons, Josh Mandel, Neil Patel, Mark Pukita, Jane Timken, and J.D. We know that President Donald Trump won 18 of the 19 historic bellwether counties those that have regularly predicted the outcome of presidential contests. Many of its residents include farmers, retirees who love to fish, and more than 3,300 military veterans. I mean the whole world ought to be mad at China, we should all be going to war against them.