Were doing a lot of adult retraining, he said. 11. After Detroits Wayne County, Oakland County is the most-populous in the state. Well, lets consider the percentage gap between the winning and losing party in these counties. An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections, 1980-2016 Daniel Zimny-Schmitt1, Michael C. Harris2 1. The US Election Integrity Plan contains further news, analysis, videos and practical guides to getting involved. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up. He is based in San Francisco and has also written for NBC News and The Hill. Enter Donald Trump. Will That Last?]. But county wins don't correlate with the popular vote, in part due to tremendousvariancein population size and density by county. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. Found an error on our site? Help raise awareness within your community about the lingering, unresolved issues with election integrity. Trump won the other 18 counties. 108,000 people. This well-educated, high-income and increasingly diverse D.C. exurb (Asians and Latinos togther make up a third of this county) went for Obama twice and roughly reflected the statewide margin. A bellwether county that includes Canton, its part of a heavily blue collar region where Trumps message could resonate. The odds of 21 counties out of 22 missing the mark is extremely remote! We know these counties are the best of the best at predicting the election winner. Clinton has to drive up the score in Philadelphia with its significant share of black voters. As weve seen in the past two presidential elections, bellwether streaks can be suddenly ended thanks to Americas continually evolving political and demographic trends. These counties were geographically clustered in the Midwest and in the Northeast. Our fact check work is supported in part by a grant from Facebook. Below are 10 bellwether counties that could give signs as to how the electorate feels this cycle and in future races. In other words, we are including more counties that are more likely to vote for the Democrat party. Voter Demographics (9). Go on, look them up! More Than Half of U.S. Population in 4.6 Percent of Counties, Fact check: Clarifying the comparison between popular vote and counties won in the 2020 election, Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election, Americas bellwethers crumbled in aligning with Trump in 20. Ultimately, they are simply 19 counties and this time, 18 of them voted for the candidate who lost the election. That might mean needing to factor that in by a couple points. "We call them bellwethers because there's some fluke statistic, sometimes they are the right mix of different demographics. Washoe County2016 caucus winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Obama 51%, Romney 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Republican: 105,410Democrats: 102,422Unaffiliated: 53,048Others: 19,815. 6. If Trump wants to win the state, he has to start with a win here and make up the rest of the margin elsewhere. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. Here are the top 25 counties which voted over 60% for the Democrat party in 2008, and then voted Republican in 2016: There is no doubt these 25 counties heavily favor the Democrat party. Whether or not these less diverse, industry-dependent communities can regain their bellwether status in four years' time remains to be seen. There are 391 such counties. Yes, another Hillsborough! In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. Traditional Republican eastern counties of Carroll, Belknap and Rockingham, home to Portsmouth, fell back to the GOP in 2012, but not by enough for Romney, who had a home in the state, to win. They are not a statistical curiosity, but the perfect distillation or embodiment of the whole countrys sentiment. We'll get an early indicator of Clinton's black support given this is a 7 p.m. poll close state and a place where 1-in-5 voters were black and went 93 percent for Obama. Weve been losing a lot of younger people to other areas of the country. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. They have a rare and unique property of having a perfect demographic mix that allows them to vote for either party based on the merits of each election, and always get it right. "There are more and more places in this country that are consistently red or blue, so there are fewer and fewer counties that swing back and forth from election to election," he said. If Clinton is getting in the mid-to-high 30s there, rather than the high 20s, she might have a shot at improving her statewide total enough to beat Trump and McMullin. Bellwether 2016 University of New Hampshire . All other 21 counties voted Republican. The Art Of The Vote: Who Designs The Ballots We Cast. What's more, in this year's election voters in leading bellwether counties didn't just come out for Donald Trump marginally; they backed him in droves. Once-reliably Republican -- and essential to Republicans to help overcome the deficit they face in Las Vegas Clark County -- Washoe voted twice for Bush and then twice for Obama. These are places that are demographically strong for Republicans in the abstract, but might have had something that kept them closer to 50-50.". Other counties to watch: Pima (where Tucson is). Now, Democrats have to drive up the margin in this populous, central North Carolina county. An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections - SSRN Just one Clallam County, Washington voted for President Joe Biden. What does this mean for the nation's political-economic divide? John King has identified as key in the 2016 election. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa Obama won them, Trump won them, Biden lost them. Other counties to watch: Nowhere is more important than Polk (Des Moines). It provided the second highest vote totals of any county and a significant share for Democrats. Republicans are bullish that the suburban county will stay in their column this time, in part because of frustration with Washington. This favors the Democrat party since we are excluding counties that voted Republican in 1988. In this section we will introduce a new concept: The swing county. Co., as its sometimes referred to, has gone more closely for the statewide winner than any other big county. Nobody forgot about politics.". Trump, who needs to pick off one Democratic leaning state, added a rally here Sunday night. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. If Trump can't win back or cut into margins in places like Prince William, Fairfax and Loudon, he likely can't win the state. The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night Experts say that while traditional bellwether counties are whiter and less educated than the national average, there's no one element that unites them as political oracles. Watauga has gone for the winner statewide in each of the last three presidential elections and three Senate races since 2008. "Those are things that aren't just political, they become personal, after the election.". Ohio (18 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. 4. The matters that way on their minds are real. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. The fact that there were 19 demonstrates the incredible predictive abilities of these counties.). Follow the Data Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis . Jacksonvilles Duval County has been a reliable Republican performer over the years, though it nearly went for Obama in 2008 in large part due to high African-American turnout. "Biden did well in virtually all of the most populous counties in the U.S., which, along with a larger electorate explains why he defeated Donald Trump by over 7 million votes, despite carrying many fewer counties," Smith wrote. "That didn't happen after 2016," she adds. Joe Biden (631) Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. But since it's gotten so much attention this cycle with the possibility that independent Evan McMullin siphons off votes from Trump, we kept it in here. The statistic on counties comes from a report bytheBrookings Institution on Nov. 10. We sorted the counties from highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (in the 2008 election). Hamilton is ringed by heavily Republican Butler, Warren and Clermont counties, and it shares a border with Indiana, which is giving hope to GOP officials who think Trumps running mate, Indiana Gov. The exurban county has seen a surge in minority voters in fact, non-Hispanic whites only constitute 62 percent of the vote, and thats made the area more competitive. Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton need to shore up their bases here in a place where there are more unaffiliated voters than Republicans or Democrats and major party registration is at near parity. Really stop reading. The Milwaukee suburb went for Obama by just 3 points in 2012, but went for George W. Bush in 2004 when Wisconsin was the closest state of that election, though it went for Democrat John Kerry. Still, the key for Democrats is Salt Lake, which gave Obama more than half his statewide vote there. Obama won comfortably here in 2008 but only squeaked to victory four years later. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. Suburban Denvers Arapahoe and Jefferson counties have moved in tandem for the past four elections. It clearly shows they hold no allegiances and will vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them at each election. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 258,050Unaffiliated: 228,638Republicans: 185,694Libertarian: 3,711. Now imagine getting 21 out of 22! A few counties in America are known as the "bellwether counties": Those locations that always end up voting for the candidate who ultimately wins in the presidential election. Affluent, well-educated Wake County, home to Raleigh and part of the Research Triangle, was once Republican territory. | AP Photo, By Darren Samuelsohn, Katie Glueck, Kyle Cheney and Daniel Strauss. The Most Important Question About the 2020 Election Utah (6 electoral votes) - Likely Republican. If you find this article meaningful and convincing, please share it far and wide. US election results: Why the most accurate bellwether counties - BBC But it's still indicative of widespread support. Answer (1 of 33): Because "bellwether counties" are a load of horse manure. @ryanmatsumoto1, Donald Trump (1624 posts) But that's no longer the case. "This is an added benefit for security and resilience," they wrote. In 2020, a single. What's the least amount of exercise we can get away with? Their emotions and decision making process are real. This populous, longtime Republican county has shifted in the last two presidential elections, as demograpic change has swept the metro Atlanta area. Here is a look at the bellwether counties for the 2020 presidential race. Hillary Clinton (578) George W. Bush twice won comfortably in Forsyth County, the home of Winston-Salem. So the question is, how many of them switched back to the Democrat party in 2020? From 1980 through 2016, there were 19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. However, its bellwether status is by no means guaranteed in future elections. Trump, however, needs to drive up the score in Collin (Plano). From his tweet: From 1984 through 2016, spanning presidential elections, seventeen US counties in several states ad voted for the winning presidential candidate in an astounding 148 of 153 times including 100% five times for five different presidents: Advertisement - story continues below 1984 Reagan 1996 Clinton 2000 Bush 2012 Obama 2016 Trump This year with Mr Trump winning the county handily, not only did Vigo County Republicans keep their seats, a "red tide" similar to what transpired in Ottawa and Valencia counties saw Republican members take positions such as county judge, treasurer, clerk and recorder. Ottawa County wasn't the only swing county to get the outcome wrong this time around. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-48% - 2008: Obama 52%-47%. (Sorry, not sorry.) Stanislaus County, California (county seat Modesto) - one miss since 1972 (in 2016). [Even Though Biden Won, Republicans Enjoyed The Largest Electoral College Edge In 70 Years. "End of day, the solution is complicated but the problem is very simple," wrote a user who shared the meme on Instagram. Not anymore. We further relaxed the constraint by introducing the switch county. Trump is making a hard play here; His first visit to Iowa after accepting the nomination at the Republican National Convention was in Scott County. At the presidential level, Republicans havent won Oakland County since 1992, though George W. Bush twice came very close. On Dec. 1, formerAttorney General William Barr also told the Associated Pressthe U.S. Justice Department had uncovered no such evidence. But along with the states other urbanized counties, Forsyth has moved to the left, twice backing Barack Obama. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Due to health and time constraints of our original contributors and a lack of volunteers to replace them, we haven't been able to keep pace with the further reports and findings after May 2022, including the Nov 2022 Mid-Term Elections, during which, sadly, many of the same irregularities and potential fraud occurred. He would have to really drive up big margins in the less populous counties in the mountainous Western part of the state, as well as Chesterfield (south of Richmond) and Virginia Beach. We welcome any suggestions and content contibutions with credible references that help others understand the key election integrity issues. As with Valencia County, in the past bipartisanship wasn't unusual in Indiana's Vigo County. Other counties to watch: Also watch Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre). 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention) . What Can We Learn from Bellwether Counties in Swing States? (The highest value being 66.1%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 25 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up Bellwether: Watauga In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. 2. It went for Romney 54 to 44 percent, nearly reflecting the overall margin. It is the only county to go twice for Bush and twice for Obama. Lets find a coin, and flip it. It's true that it is unusual for the party of thecandidate who wins the White House to lose seats in the House of Representatives. Lets rank these counties from highest to lowest Democrat voting percentages in the 2008 election. Moving forward, it is entirely possible that there will be no single county that consistently indicates the results of a national election. There are more than 3,000 counties in the United States, but in presidential elections they are not all created equal. 10 bellwether counties that could signal where the election is headed For instance, Washington County, Maine the median bellwether county in terms of its share thats non-Hispanic white is 89 percent non-Hispanic white, which is much higher than the overall U.S. population that identifies as such (60 percent). Other counties to watch: Remarkably, Obama won every county in this state in 2008. In 132 years, no president has received more votes in his run for reelection and lost. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. It also backed Gov. Keep in mind that if we started the attrition from the 1980 election, there would still be 19 counties standing after the 2016 election. Oct. 28, 2021, 11:05 AM PDT. 2016 election critical counties: Vigo, Indiana | CNN Politics Team up with others in your region, and help out by ), voted Democrat again in 2020? Read about our approach to external linking. As the country's demographics shift and the rural-urban divide becomes more pronounced, the chances appear slim. Virginia (13 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. We will only focus on the most recent elections to increase the pool of counties to analyze.). Bonus points if you also keep track of the trends from 2016 to 2020. The 10 Bellwether Counties That Show How Trump Is in Serious Trouble Hillsborough made up more than half that margin Obama won the county by 36,000 votes. Read about our approach to external linking. Published Nov. 8, 2016 at 5:30 a.m. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? Thank you for supporting our journalism. In fact, of the 19 pivot counties across America to correctly pick the president every time over the past 10 election cycles, only one - Clallam County in Washington state - saw a majority back Joe Biden for president. Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 105,097Republicans: 87,763Democrats: 77,383. Lets introduce a new concept: the quality of prediction. In fact, according to David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, compared to 1,096 counties that fit that description in 1992. Where did all the bellwether counties go? - HotAir Trump, who has tended to run better with voters without college degrees, got trounced in the primary in Wake earlier this year. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. Just a tiny fraction of them truly matter. Other swing counties to watch: Monroe and Calhoun. Instead, you can Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel which has more recent updates. The percentage of people with college degrees here is two-thirds higher than the rest of the state. It went Republican in 2012; if Clinton is doing better or vice-versa there compared to Obama, it could be a sign of things to come. Republicans Ulysses S. Grant and William Howard Taft won a majority of the presidential popular vote but lost a handful of seats in House, too. A Guide To The Election 'Guides' - NPR.org Racine County2016 primary winners: Sanders, Cruz, Latest voter registration totals: 113,599No party registration. It is easy to gloss over this. Ask our loving God to act in dealing with corruption, restoring justice and integrity in the nation, and prayerfully consider who you should share information with and what your role might be. We identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. To get an idea as to whether Clinton could win it, watch Tarrant County. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention), Latest voter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 112,113Democrats: 109,965Republicans: 100,540Libertarian: 3,009. Shield icon by Freepik from flaticon.com. How Does The Electoral College Work And Is It Fair? Democrats need to drive up the margins in Fulton and DeKalb. Obama won it with 53 percent of the vote while winning statewide by just 75,000 votes in 2012. i.e. Trumps local ties notwithstanding, Clinton is likely to run up her numbers here in the northernmost part of the South Florida region. This one of 99 counties made up 16 percent of Obama's total vote in 2012. Cincinnati is kind of considered a little bit of an island off the rest of Ohio. Along with neighboring Pinellas County (St. Petersburg), the two counties include nearly a half-million registered Republicans. Split-Ticket Voters Helped Biden, Republicans in Nebraska, Maine, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. Other counties to watch: Often early results in Michigan will show a close race or Republicans ahead, until the Detroit area votes come in. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-44%. Georgia (16 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Or even better, if you have children, get them to do it for you. No county more closely reflected Obama's wins in 2008 and 2012 than Monroe, home to Key West and the rest of the Keys. She blames much of that on the "Trump effect" - Mr Trump's ability to engage people in politics by appealing to their fears and discontents. Obama won it narrowly that year, by fewer than 3,000 votes. Home to Tipton (population 3,199), Cedar has gone with the winner of every presidential and Senate race since 1992. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. 1 County 61947 People 2012 Predicting since One county. But in 2020, 18 of these 19 bellwether counties voted for former President Donald Trump. MORE PROOF OF FRAUD: 16 of 17 Bellwether Counties Went for Trump HAS "This process allows for the identification and correction of any mistakes or errors.". The same can be said for the three states listed in the meme. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Weeks after Election Day, there have still been no discoveriesof widespread voter fraud. This was George W. Bush territory in 2000 and 2004, but Obama brought it back into the Democratic fold in his two elections.